Lebanon approaches another parliamentary election amid one of the most difficult phases in its recent history. Economic collapse, currency devaluation, the loss of trust in institutions, and a constant sense of political paralysis define the current moment. This is not simply about choosing representatives; it is about deciding whether the country will continue repeating its cycles or find the strength to correct them.

Since the assassination of Rafic Hariri in 2005, Lebanese politics has lived under the weight of a memory that is both hope and warning. Hariri came to symbolize reconstruction and national ambition. His death exposed the fragility of a system bound by intersecting interests and sectarian disputes. Over the years, his son, Saad Hariri, became the political heir to this legacy, but inheriting a name is not the same as transforming structures. The challenge has always been greater than symbolism.

The 2017 electoral reform promised modernization through proportional representation and preferential voting. In theory, it was a democratic step forward. In practice, it revealed contradictions. Preferential voting forces candidates from the same list to compete against one another. What should strengthen collective political projects often turns into internal disputes centered on local, family, and sectarian networks. The mechanism was reformed, but the fragmented logic was preserved. The result is a Parliament that reflects the country’s divisions on an almost microscopic scale.

The debate over the so-called “16th sector” intended for the diaspora, also exposes important dilemmas. Millions of Lebanese live outside the country, many because the crisis left them with few alternatives. Creating a separate district may appear inclusive, but it raises an essential question. By separating the expatriate vote, does it symbolically weaken their bond with their homeland? Allowing them to vote in their home districts may be a more coherent way to reaffirm belonging and preserve the idea of return and reconstruction.

But perhaps the most decisive element of this election lies in the youth going to the polls. Many of these young voters were born after the civil war. They did not experience the conflict directly, but they inherited its political structures. They grew up hearing promises of stability while watching public services fail, opportunities shrink, and corruption become routine. They were the ones who took to the streets in 2019, demanding dignity, transparency, and an end to clientelism. In those protests, a new political awareness emerged, less tied to automatic loyalties and more focused on institutional accountability.

This generation faced the banking collapse, watched their savings disappear, and saw friends and family leave the country. For many, remaining in Lebanon became a decision filled with meaning. When they vote, they are not simply seeking a change of names; they are seeking economic predictability, functioning institutions, and respect for merit.

The central question is whether the system will allow this energy to translate into real change. Electoral fragmentation, internal rivalries, and the strength of traditional political machines remain powerful obstacles. Yet something has changed. A generation that understands stability without justice is simply stagnation in disguise.

Lebanon now stands, once again, at a historical crossroads. Honoring the memory of past leaders does not mean repeating their formulas, but learning from their limits. Political reconstruction requires concrete courage: confronting clientelism, restoring public trust, and placing national interest above circumstantial arrangements.

Whether this election becomes just another ritual within a worn-out system or the beginning of renewal will depend on the ability to transform memory into action and frustration into responsibility. Lebanon has already proven its ability to endure. Now it must prove its ability to reform.

Bruno Roque Younes
Investigador de Brasil
Integrante
Roudy Jido
Colaborador Externo de Líbano
Departamento de Medio Oriente
IRI-UNLP